Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
